WNBA Notes: Who has Valkyries expansion draft regrets?

Tankathon Check-in

To be clear, no one in the WNBA is currently tanking on purpose (at least, the players aren’t). That being said, let’s see where our teams are right now in the lottery standings and where they project to end up (chart vaguely organized by rightmost column). If Washington is within two games of Las Vegas after the All-Star break, I’ll add the Aces to the chart. Until then, I’m not believing an A’ja Wilson-led team is at risk of missing the playoffs.

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Golden State

I want to take a look back at this past winter’s expansion draft, and with the benefit of hindsight see which teams made mistakes with their roster protections. This isn’t really about the Valkyries, but it also kind of is, so Golden State is the heading over this whole discussion. Because the coaching and scheme it employs is the context that allows a roster of role players to succeed. In some cases, players would probably look worse if they were still on their former teams, making these observations as much about the Valkyries as those other teams.

Recall that the expansion draft took place prior to free agency and the 2025 draft, so all players protected and selected must have already been rostered, had their rights held by a team, or played out the season for that team in 2024.

Atlanta

Player selected: Iliana Rupert

Players most likely protected: Allisha Gray, Rhyne Howard, Jordin Canada, Naz Hillmon, Haley Jones

Other players possibly protected: Nyadiew Puoch, Nia Coffey

Iliana Rupert has yet to appear for the Valkyries, though she is expected to join within the next couple of weeks, so this evaluation is incomplete.

Regret Rating: N/A

Chicago

Player selected: María Conde

Players most likely protected: Angel Reese, Kamilla Cardoso, Elizabeth Williams, Rachel Banham, Lindsay Allen, Moriah Jefferson

Other players possibly protected: N/A

María Conde tore her Achilles before the preseason, so this is an incomplete evaluation. Banham has been a useful guard for a Sky team in need of competent guard play, Allen was used as trade fodder, and keeping Jefferson was a necessary swing for more competent guard play despite her injury issues. And judging Chicago leaving Conde unprotected also depends on knowing whether Conde gave any consideration to coming stateside to play for the Sky.

Regret Rating: N/A

Connecticut

Player selected: Veronica Burton

Players most likely protected: Alyssa Thomas, Marina Mabrey, DiJonai Carrington, Olivia Nelson-Ododa, Tyasha Harris, Leïla Lacan

Other players possibly protected: N/A

Veronica Burton is sort of having a breakout for Golden State, and that is only a “sort of” because her scoring efficiency is appreciably down from what it was with the Sun in 2024. Her defense remains a strong positive, and the ability to hold up in significant minutes as a lead guard is an impressive new facet to her game.

Connecticut ended up using Thomas, Carrington, Allen and Harris in trades, so despite Burton’s quasi-breakout, it’s hard to imagine her providing more trade value than those four or more on-court value than Mabrey. Perhaps the Sun would prefer this version of Burton to Nelson-Ododa, but that probably makes their roster even more imbalanced in favor of the backcourt.

Regret Rating: ⭐⭐☆☆☆

Dallas

Player selected: Carla Leite

Players most likely protected: Satou Sabally, Arike Ogunbowale, Teaira McCowan, Jacy Sheldon, Kalani Brown, Maddy Siegrist

Other players possibly protected: N/A

This would be a straightforward 5/5 Regret Rating if not for JJ Quinerly. The rookie third-rounder has summarily outperformed her draft slot (as was to be expected), and even when her shooting cools off a bit and she likely moves from a backup point to a 2-guard role, she is filling out the spot in the depth chart Carla Leite would have had.

That being said, there is still plenty of room for a player like Leite in Dallas’ rotation. With Paige Bueckers able to play the 3, the team could put three or four other guards into the rotation, something that the Wings’ disappointing frontcourt this year has necessitated. Offensive struggles and defensive lapses led to Carrington getting benched, and Tyasha Harris’ season-ending injury opened up a spot as well. And beyond the on-court opportunity, Leite still has three more cost-controlled years.

Between Leite having a strong scoring season as a rookie and Brown’s contract getting dumped as negative value in the Sabally sign-and-trade, Dallas certainly ended up worse for the wear.

Regret Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ½

Indiana

Player selected: Temi Fagbenle

Players most likely protected: Caitlin Clark, Aliyah Boston, Kelsey Mitchell, Lexie Hull, NaLyssa Smith

Other players possibly protected: Damiris Dantas, Katie Lou Samuelson

This is the most straightforward mistake any team made. Temi Fagbenle has been superb for the Valkyries on both ends, but even if she was only as good as she was last year, she would be a much better player than Dantas or Samuelson (notwithstanding the latter’s torn ACL). What makes this particularly egregious was that Fagbenle was far better than both last year, and there was little reason to expect any different in 2025. Smith, at least, was traded for Sophie Cunningham.

Regret Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Las Vegas

Player selected: Kate Martin

Players most likely protected: A’ja Wilson, Jackie Young, Kelsey Plum, Chelsea Gray

Other players possibly protected: Kiah Stokes, Megan Gustafson, Tiffany Hayes

Given the erratic nature of the Aces’ front office, it’s entirely possible that someone like Kierstan Bell was protected, but I’m assuming their decisions weren’t that far out of left field.

Kate Martin could certainly help the Vegas bench, which outside of Aaliyah Nye and the now-free agent Tiffany Mitchell has been a complete disaster. But her skill set would be a redundant, lesser version of Nye’s, and Stokes and Gustafson are both needed on the roster due to far worse depth in the frontcourt than the backcourt. I’m sure the Aces regret not having more competent bench players but I don’t think they should regret leaving Martin unprotected.

Regret Rating: ½ ☆☆☆☆

Los Angeles

Player selected: Stephanie Talbot

Players most likely protected: Dearica Hamby, Azurá Stevens, Cameron Brink, Rickea Jackson

Other players possibly protected: Rae Burrell, Lexie Brown, Li Yueru, Shaneice Swain

If Burell doesn’t get injured one minute into the season and Brink doesn’t have an abnormally slow return to play, the Sparks have no need for Stephanie Talbot at all. As it is, Talbot appears to have lost multiple steps since her ACL tear in early 2023, despite some strong flashes last summer, and she has been one of the least-effective scorers and most turnover-prone players in the WNBA, even at a low usage level. Maybe Los Angeles’ struggling bench could use her at the moment, but it’s a far closer call than Golden State would want it to be.

Regret Rating: ☆☆☆☆☆

Minnesota

Player selected: Cecilia Zandalasini

Players most likely protected: Napheesa Collier, Alanna Smith, Kayla McBride, Courtney Williams, Bridget Carleton

Other players possibly protected: Natisha Hiedeman, Diamond Miller

The Lynx very likely protected Hiedeman, but since she was an unrestricted free agent, I bumped her down to the lower level of likelihood just to be safe. In the event they did protect her, there’s little to regret: Zandalasini is probably a better pure shooter than Hiedeman, but the latter is better at about everything else and is far more playable in the playoffs. In the event that Diamond Miller was protected, that decision has not panned out at all.

Regret Rating for Hiedeman: ☆☆☆☆☆

Regret Rating for Miller: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

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New York

Player selected: Kayla Thornton

Players most likely protected: Jonquel Jones, Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, Betnijah Laney-Hamilton, Leonie Fiebich, Nyara Sabally

Other players possibly protected: N/A

It’s possible Marine Johannès was protected over Sabally, but that latter is cost-controlled for two more years (barring a major change in service time for free agency in the next CBA), and Thornton had passed the former on the playoff depth chart by the second round in 2023. Beyond the contract considerations, having Kennedy Burke made losing Thornton easier than possibly losing Sabally.

Surely the Liberty would prefer to have Thornton than not, but it’s unlikely they would do anything differently.

Regret Rating: ☆☆☆☆☆

Phoenix

Player selected: Monique Billings

Players most likely protected: Kahleah Copper, Natasha Cloud, Rebecca Allen, Sophie Cunningham, Klara Lundquist

Other players possibly protected: Natasha Mack, Brittney Griner

Beyond those first four protected names and Mack, Lundquist was the only player whose rights the Mercury held going into the draft and still hold at time of publication. But given that she is still a very interesting Euroleague player, she was likely a protected player. (Griner obviously left Phoenix to head to Atlanta, but it’s possible the Mercury protected her to not allow the Valkyries a shot to negotiate with her ahead of free agency.)

The Valkyries are getting the most out of Billings by changing her spots both offensively and defensively, letting her play the 5 instead of asking her to be a frontcourt hybrid. The result is more impactful defense and fewer turnovers, and surely they are happy in their investment.

That style doesn’t work as well in Phoenix. With Nate Tibbetts wanting almost all the playing time at the 4 to go to Alyssa Thomas or Satou Sabally, that isn’t as synergistic a fit. Either option needs height and verticality at the rim, where Mack is a better fit, as opposed to Billings’ better defending in space. Still, I’d be interested to see this Mercury team with some minutes of a Sabally-Billings frontcourt.

Regret Rating: ½ ☆☆☆☆

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Seattle

N/A — No players were taken drafted from Seattle

Washington

Player selected: Julie Vanloo

Players most likely protected: Brittney Sykes, Ariel Atkins, Shakira Austin, Aaliyah Edwards, Karlie Samuelson

Other players possibly protected: Stefanie Dolson, Emily Engstler, Jade Melbourne

Julie Vanloo has since been cut, so like Atlanta this section’s moot. The Mystics don’t exactly have a glaring need at point guard at the moment, at least compared to their other weak points, and for her highlight passes and 3-pointers, Vanloo had a lot of rough moments in both Washington and Golden State. She’s more useful than Dolson at this point in their respective careers, at least.

Regret Rating: ⭐⭐ ½ ☆☆

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Here at The Next and The IX, our audience is a collection of the smartest, most passionate women’s sports fans in the world. If your business has a mission to serve these fans, reach out to our team at editors@thenexthoops.com to discuss ways to work together.

Editor’s note: Monumental Sports and Entertainment, the group that owns the Washington Mystics, holds a minority stake in The Next. The Next’s editorial operations are entirely independent of Monumental and all other business partners. This story has been updated to properly reflect Atlanta’s selection.