With four 2024 All-Stars on the roster plus a few young players in clear positions for growth, everyone knows the Fever will be better this season. Yet through five games, Indiana sits at 2-3. Five games is a small sample, and it’s impossible to make any sweeping generalizations about the team. It’s almost impossible — the specifics of the Fever’s results make the team almost impossible to evaluate with just over 11% of their season in the rearview mirror.
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Every possession matters, and the Indiana Fever are the face of that so far this year. They have three losses, and all three came in a game during which the scoring margin was within four points at some point in the final eight minutes. Indiana trailed Washington 64-60 with 7:30 to go in a six-point loss, led New York 82-81 with five minutes to go in a two-point defeat, and led Atlanta 90-89 with less than 10 seconds remaining in a 91-90 defeat. The Fever’s three losses have come by a combined nine points — they are close to a better record, but close means nothing.
“It’s a lot of little things,” Indiana Fever head coach Stephanie White said of all the tight defeats. “When you’re talking about [one] possession ball games, every possession matters. And we’ve been sloppy in some areas we need to shore up.”
While some of the Fever’s clutch execution has been solid — their clutch net rating is actually fourth in the WNBA, for example — they haven’t been quite good enough to escape from some of their tightest battles with a victory. They were one stop away from holding the ball with a lead and the shot clock off against Atlanta and New York but couldn’t get a stop. They ended up fouling on both possessions. It’s those small margins that have Indiana with a record below .500.
The Fever did close out the Dream in Atlanta for their lone clutch win this season, scoring 11 points in the final 3:06 to get it done. They proved that night that they are capable of crunch time success. But it hasn’t been constant, and it needs to be.
“We have a lot of areas to grow,” wing Lexie Hull said.
The narrow margins in these games make evaluating the Fever’s start nontrivial. They opened the season 2-2 with losses by one and two. They weren’t far off from a 4-0 start to the season. In Game 5, they had to adjust to their new, temporary reality without Clark and still played a pesky Mystics team close. It’s easy for the Fever to shout optimism despite a 2-3 record.
But it’s not that simple. Indiana, who has the personnel to be a great offensive team, has been inconsistent on that end of the floor. Their defense, which started the season strong in a big win over the Chicago Sky, has faltered more recently. Consistency is missing.
In some ways, that was expected. Multiple starters are new to the team. The system is new. Not everything was going to click right away. Many possessions for the Fever start with an action that makes sense. If it doesn’t produce a shot, there’s confusion and a lot of standing around. Even with the Fever topping the league in pace, there have been many possessions that leave a lot to be desired when it comes to tempo.
For example, the Fever rank ninth in fast break points. They had zero fast break points in their most recent loss against Washington. The team has the talent to be better in the open floor. But their pace isn’t coming from that — instead, they are playing fast in halfcourt settings. Perhaps more deliberate play would help as the team establishes chemistry, but White wants her players to be creative. The team hasn’t found the ideal pace just yet.
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Defensively, the Fever have been searching for answers after their strong start. In the last four games, Indiana ranks ninth in defensive rating. They shut down the Sky and deserve credit for doing so, but they haven’t been effective on the less glamorous end of the court since that win.
They’ve had trouble with points in the paint, especially in more recent games. The Indiana Fever aren’t getting enough stops or steals to be the transition team that they hope to be. From top to bottom, they need to be better on that side of the ball. It will boost their offense, too.
“When our defense is bad, we won’t get whatever we want on offense,” All-Star guard Kelsey Mitchell said, “It’s a tale of two battles. For one to work, the other one has to work and vice versa. … I don’t think it’s anything super glaring that we can’t fix.”
The two sides of the floor are connected. That’s why the Fever’s early-season difficulties have been spread out. They haven’t been awful at any one thing, but they have multiple little issues to figure out, and the quantity of challenges they are working through are holding the team back on both ends.
“Our first line of defense is our shot selection and live ball turnovers,” veteran guard Sydney Colson said. “We don’t want those. It makes our life very difficult.”
The two sides of the floor are connected, and the Fever have work to do on both ends. Their pace-and-space style is a work in progress. Indiana needs to score more often to set their defense, but they also need to get enough stops to give themselves easier chances to score. As a new-look team works to get better, they are working through challenges on both ends. It has them at 2-3.
And yet, the Indiana Fever have been in a bunch of close games, then lost with Clark sidelined due to injury. It’s hard to get a feel for the team so far as a result. Wing Sophie Cunningham missed time, too, with an ankle injury. So while the team won’t be happy with their win-loss record, the areas they need to work on are in clear focus. The next five games will be critical.
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