The Lynx will have home-court advantage for the first two games, and then Game 3 will be played in Connecticut. If necessary, Game 4 would be played in Connecticut, and Game 5 would be played in Minnesota. Let’s take a look at what the matchup may look like.
Execution is key for the Sun if they want to beat Minnesota and advance to the WNBA Finals, where they will either face the top seed New York or MVP A’ja Wilson and the Las Vegas Aces. The four remaining teams make up the league’s four top defenses by defensive rating since June 14.
“I think when you get to this point in the season, everybody’s working their best and we know that no matter who we’re playing, and no matter who else is playing, teams play at an elite level in the playoffs,” Connecticut Sun head coach Stephanie White told reporters after their Game 2 win over Indiana. “We’ve got to control the things that we can control … we’ve got to be ready to go.”
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Matching up
The Sun won the season series against the Lynx, 2-1, including an 83-82 overtime win on May 23 and a 78-73 road win on July 4. These two teams last met on Sept. 17, when the Sun fell to the Lynx 78-76 during a home match.
White told reporters postgame of that latest meeting that they traditionally play a smaller lineup against the Lynx.
“It gave us some flexibility defensively to be a little bit more versatile, to be able to play them a different way,” explained White. “And it was effective for us on the defensive end of the floor, and we spread the floor, so we were able to spread them out a little bit more and get some good looks,” White said.
Shutting down Minnesota forward Napheesa Collier — who finished second in MVP voting behind unanimous MVP winner Wilson — will be Connecticut’s biggest challenge. Collier has been unstoppable in the postseason, averaging 40 points per game in Minnesota’s sweep of Phoenix.
Minimizing Collier’s touches and forcing the Lynx to look for secondary scoring options will be essential for the Sun. In their last meeting, Collier totaled 25 points, six rebounds and four blocks to lead the Lynx to the victory.
“[Collier]’s not just a challenge today. She’s a challenge every day,” White said after that game. “She’s skilled. She’s really skilled. She’s versatile, she can score in a lot of different ways. She’s smart, high IQ. She never plays outside of herself. She makes the right reads, and they have the pieces around her that fit. … Her efficiency, her ability to play all over the floor and play at a high level for a lot of minutes, is key. She’s just a hell of a player, an MVP-caliber player.”
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Connecticut’s anchors
The Sun will need to rely on its league-leading defense to meet the challenges presented by Collier while also battling with Minnesota’s defense, which is just behind them in the leaderboards.
Connecticut Sun forward Alyssa Thomas has been “the engine” for the team for many years and is a core fixture of the Connecticut defense. This regular season, Thomas averaged 8.4 rebounds and 1.6 steals per game.
Across games 1 and 2 of the first round of the playoffs, Thomas recorded her WNBA-record 15th triple-double, a 13-assist double-double, and totaled 31 total points, 15 rebounds and 26 assists.
“First, I’m just proud that we finally got it done and won a three-game series,” Thomas told reporters in Wednesday night’s postgame press conference. “We finally locked in and took advantage of home-court advantage, but we’re ready. I mean, I think we were tested tonight. And it wasn’t pretty, but that’s the nature of [the] playoffs. We pulled out a gutsy win, but this team is hungry. We’re ready, as you can see. Our bench — everyone on our bench — is contributing as well. And yeah, we’re just having a lot of fun, and we’re ready for what the playoff journey is going to unfold.”
Sun guard and 2024 Most Improved Player DiJonai Carrington also adds to Connecticut’s defensive strengths. Carrington was named most improved for a reason, and her stats show it. She averaged 12.7 points, 5.0 rebounds, 1.6 assists and 1.6 steals this season, all career bests.
Veteran forward/guard DeWanna Bonner will also help lead the way with her veteran experience. She knows how to step up in big moments and knows what it takes to win as a previous WNBA champion with the Phoenix Mercury. Bonner averaged 15.0 points per game this regular season, but that has increased during the postseason to 18.5 points per game across games 1 and 2.
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Supporting characters
Minnesota’s talent for Connecticut to prep for doesn’t end with Collier. They also have a strong backcourt with guards Courtney Williams and Kayla McBride, plus Bridget Carleton has played well on the wing. Alanna Smith joins Collier in the front court and will also be a problem offensively and defensively. Collier, McBride, Smith and Williams all averaged double-digit scoring for points per game during the regular season.
With so much attention paid to defending Collier, it will be interesting to see how Stephanie White chooses to match up with the other four players on the court.
Midseason acquisition Marina Mabrey has been a game-changer for the Sun, especially during the postseason, where she has averaged 22.0 points a game and 4.5 assists.
Mabrey hit a dagger three in the final minute of Game 2 against the Fever that was enough to secure the Sun a win. Mabrey has also stepped up her defensive game, which the Sun will need against a talented Minnesota offense.
The Sun’s bench will need to lock in and continue to contribute. Sun forward Olivia Nelson-Ododa and guard Veronica Burton are coming off a great game against the Fever. Burton scored 10 points and contributed three assists and three rebounds in Game 2, while Nelson-Ododa scored eight points and had two blocks and six rebounds.
Breaking through
The Sun are a championship-hungry team, something they have continuously emphasized throughout the season. After 16 postseason trips without a title before this season, the Sun hope this time is different.
The addition of Mabrey is just the latest example of that push, complementing one of the league’s most playoff-tested rosters with an extra bit of fire. All pieces need to be firing on all cylinders to get past the Lynx, and regaining home-court advantage with a road win in games 1 or 2 will go a long way toward bringing home that first championship.
