As the WNBA season unfolds, fans and observers keenly focus their attention on the competitive battle for playoff spots among teams like the Phoenix Mercury, Atlanta Dream, Chicago Sky, and Indiana Fever, all currently vying for positions within the 6-9 seed range. Each team’s journey to the postseason hinges on pivotal statistical insights that highlight their strengths and vulnerabilities on the court. Analyzing key metrics reveals compelling reasons these teams are ready for playoff contention and highlights critical factors that could hinder their postseason aspirations.
Seed #6 – Phoenix Mercury
Stats that support: third in clutch points per game (PPG)
Stats that hinder: third highest pace but only 11th in fast break points
The Mercury are perhaps the league’s most gun-slinging type of team, which makes them one of the harder teams to predict long-term.
The Mercury average the fifth-most PPG overall with 82.4 PPG, but up that to third during clutch time, defined as a game within 10 points with five or fewer minutes left. This is a great omen for future playoff consideration, as they average the league’s third-most clutch minutes per game (MPG). The Mercury play a lot of tight games (11 games deciding by 10 or fewer points with a 7-4 record) and all of that experience will benefit them down the stretch when clinching a playoff spot comes down to these crucial games. If the team can continue their high-scoring clutch pace, and the return of Brittney Griner only seems to confirm that hypothesis, the Mercury should put themselves in an excellent position to contend for not just a playoff seed, but a decent one at that.
Speaking of Griner, of the lineups with at least 10 minutes played together, the lineup with her, Rebecca Allen, Diana Taurasi, Natasha Cloud, and Kahleah Copper together have the second most minutes per game (MPG), second most PPG, are third in field goal percentage (FG%), and 10th in three-point percentage (3PT%).
The other side is concerning. For a team that loves to get up and down the floor, they don’t score with high efficiency in the fast break. Leaving many of those opportunities unconverted can open you up to transition looks the other way (Phoenix gives up the league’s third-most fastbreak points to their opponents at 11.6). Because Phoenix plays a lot of tight games, the margin for error is significantly smaller than other teams. This transition inefficiency could be what holds the Mercury back and cost them a playoff spot.
Seed #7 – Atlanta Dream
Stats that support: second in turnover percentage (TOV%); third in clutch time net rating
Stats that hinder: fewest PPG; lowest FG%
For all the talk about what the Dream doesn’t do, one thing that isn’t talked enough about is that they don’t turn the ball over. While the offense struggles more than it should, they at least don’t beat themselves. Teams that can keep that turnover number low tend to win, so if the Dream can get a bit more scoring punch, they should be able to stay in the thick of the playoff race.
Additionally, the scoring comes through during clutch time, providing that third-ranked net rating during that period of the game. The more close games they play (their average margin is 11.2 PPG and 7.4 PPG in their seven wins) the more important that net rating will be, which will probably mean this team remains a playoff team.
However, the Atlanta Dream is an incredibly confusing team. For all the offensive talent they have on the team, they can’t seem to score much at all. I believe that part of this is coaching, which is why I said in the preseason that head coach Tanisha Wright might be the first coach to be fired. You should not be bringing up the rear in scoring prowess for a team with Rhyne Howard, Allisha Gray, a resurgent Tina Charles, and Cheyenne Parker. Not only that, but the shooting has been abysmal. Four of their six wins have come against the Dallas Wings, Washington Mystics and Chicago Sky, Los Angeles Sparks (twice), all teams below them in the standings. If they cannot figure out their offensive funk, they’ll be looking at a long offseason with plenty of questions.
Seed #8 – Indiana Fever
Stats that support: fourth in effective field goal percentage (eFG%); fourth in 3PT%
Stats that hinder: ninth in DRTG in clutch
The Caitlin Clark Effect has reared its head for better and worse. Indiana is shooting over one and a half percent better from distance this season compared to in 2023. Consequently, this explains why their eFG% is so strong, which accounts for the three-pointer higher than the two considering their value difference. Indiana doesn’t need to light it up all game, but if they can continue to demonstrate their ability to knock down high-quality looks, this team might shoot its way into the playoffs for the first time since 2016.
However, if that fortune should come to bear, the Fever are going to need to improve dramatically on the defensive end, especially in clutch time. Additionally, of the lineups that have played at least 10 minutes together, the five of Clark, Aliyah Boston, Katie Lou Samuelson, Temi Fagbenle, and Kelsey Mitchell have the second worst DRTG in the league. While I know head coach Christie Sides has moved some pieces around to find better matchups, this team is simply going to need to improve on the defensive end to make it in.
Seed #9 – Chicago Sky
Stats that support: fifth-ranked defensive rating (DRTG)
Stats that hinder: last in 3PT% during clutch time
One thing we knew about the 2024 Chicago Sky coming into the season was that they would be a fun and scrappy bunch. We didn’t know that they would be decent at defense. The Sky have forged a bond much stronger and much quicker than most anticipated, allowing them to play more fluidly with one another and understand how to communicate on the defensive end. Even if the offense takes time, this is an encouraging sign. If the Sky can maintain this level of defensive aptitude, they can certainly slide themselves into the playoffs and maybe cause some fits for a team or two once there.
On the other hand, as the league has modernized and evolved, three-point shooting has become more important than ever. A Sky team that’s already worst in 3PT% overall at 29.6% cannot afford to be that poor during clutch time. Especially if they’re nursing a lead, an opponent that trades three for the twos this team gets from its bigs in Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso will almost always have the advantage. Not certain a team can maintain that high level of shooting? The Sky gives up the second-highest 3PT% to its opponents in clutch minutes. If the Sky can’t stop the barrage from distance, they’ll be sitting on the outside of the playoff picture in a hurry.
All stats as of July 2. Unless otherwise noted, all stats courtesy of WNBA.com
