Can the Fever’s Young Talent Compete with Playoff-Proven Teams? » Winsidr

Congratulations to the Indiana Fever for making the playoffs for the first time since 2016. It was hard work, but you earned it. The next challenge will be finding success in the playoffs, an arduous task for a team with a paltry three playoff series wins in the past 10 years. But that’s all in the past. It’s time to explore how the feisty, young Fever squad will fare against the top title contenders this season in the New York Liberty, Connecticut Sun, Minnesota Lynx, and two-time defending champion Las Vegas Aces. Can the heavily inexperienced Indiana Fever upset one of those heavyweights in the 2024 playoffs? Let’s find out.

Speaking of experience, let’s start there. The 2024 Fever is the third youngest team by average age and has the second lowest amount of experience by the average number of years in the league. In contrast, Minnesota is the fourth youngest squad, while Vegas is the oldest team, Connecticut is the fourth oldest, and New York is the fifth oldest.

In terms of player experience, Vegas has the most, Connecticut the fourth most, New York eighth most, and Minnesota ninth most. Each of the conceivable title contenders has more experience going for them. While that isn’t always a prerequisite for playoff success, it doesn’t hurt. 

If the Indiana Fever are going to be able to win, they’re going to have to throw age to the wind. The aforementioned Fantastic Four have varying if not somewhat substantial degrees of playoff experience as well. If their teams go down 1-0 or 2-1 in a series, they know how to respond and reclaim the upper hand. Does Indiana have the mettle and grit to withstand such a situation? The roster has played in a combined 16 playoff games. In contrast, A’ja Wilson alone has played in 37 playoff games. Courtney Williams has played in 24. There is something to be said for the Fever not knowing what they do not know, and they must carry a devil-may-care attitude and win despite their inexperience. But as it stands now, things do not look especially kind to them.

Another factor working against the Fever is their head-to-head records against the Fantastic Four. The Fever are 0-4 against the Aces, 1-3 against the Sun, 1-2 against the Lynx, and 1-3 against the Liberty. That’s 3-12 against the best teams in the league. For context, seven of those losses came before Father’s Day and as such before the team found its footing. Unless the Fever have a secret gear they’ve been keeping under wraps all season, their playoff prospects are starting to look a bit grim.

Okay, let’s dive into some numbers. Conventional wisdom says you need to be a top-notch offensive and defensive team to win the championship. Using Her Hoop Stats, I compared the Fantastic Four and Fever by counting how often they ranked first or second versus 11th or 12th in various statistical categories this season. The numbers were striking.

For context, I eliminated all free-throw-related categories. Some free-throw/foul numbers are telling about how a team scores or how they operate defensively. Including all of them, especially when the opponent’s free-throw percentage has nothing to do with what the opposing team is doing, doesn’t really present measurable results. For the sake of ease, I excluded all the related categories.  

The average number of categories where the Fantastic Four are either leading or next to leading is 18.25 compared to just three for Indiana. The opposite is true, as the Fever are at or near the bottom in 11 statistical categories, mostly on defense, compared to on average two for the Fantastic Four. It’s becoming increasingly clear that the Fever would need a Herculean effort to overcome even one of these teams, let alone play a likely three to win the title.

Let’s break it down even further. If we explore the net ratings in games these teams have won and lost, it provides us with some understanding as to how these teams win and lose. Therefore, in looking at the numbers in the chart below, it should be no surprise that when the Fantastic Four win, they usually win with excellent offense and stingy defense, as highlighted by their terrific net ratings in games they’ve won.

Additionally, when we explore their net ratings in losses, we would expect a negative, but note that the Fantastic Four have some of the best net ratings in the league in games they’ve lost. Given the obvious fact that these teams have lost the fewest games this season and the relatively tolerable net rating numbers in their losses, it is clear that these four are truly the top contenders for the 2024 championship. 

Now we look at the Fever, who have a somewhat low net rating in wins, which means their offensive rating is only slightly better than their defensive rating (DRTG), while in games they lose, it’s usually a train wreck, especially defensively. The net rating differential between the wins and losses tells the whole story.

For the Fever to truly be able to compete against these teams, the defense will need to improve tremendously. Yes, the defense has gotten better since the beginning of the year, but that was a low bar threshold to cross given how poorly this team played in the early weeks of the season. While I know it isn’t an all-inclusive nor perfect stat, DRTG still affords us some understanding of where their defense stands. Even with their improvements, they are still 10th in DRTG over the past five games, eighth over the past 10, and 11th overall this season. 

No, this was not meant to be an article to dump all over the Fever. Personally, I’m proud of what this team has accomplished this season. They’re in the playoffs, something many did not foretell after their dreadful start. At the same time, this season will be an important learning opportunity for the Fever to experience the playoffs and see what it takes to become true title contenders. Any success this team has in the playoffs will be gravy, but there too is no shame in a quick exit should they learn something from the experience.

All stats through Sept 11. Unless otherwise noted, all stats courtesy of WNBA.com.