The No. 3 Dream and No. 6 Indiana Fever open the best-of-three series in Atlanta, with the teams alternating home court throughout the series. The Dream and Fever split their regular season series two games apiece, but the Dream remained atop of the standings this year while the Fever had to rally for playoff positioning.
May 20: Dream win 91-90 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, IN
May 22: Fever win 81-76 at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, GA
June 10: Dream win 77-58 at Gateway Center Arena @ College Park in Atlanta, GA
July 11: Fever win 99-82 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, IN
Before the two teams begin battling in Atlanta, we turn to our Winsidr reporters Michael Waterloo and Matt Cohen with their thoughts on the series.
Series Schedule:
Game One: Gateway Center Arena – 3:00 p.m. ET on September 14 (ABC)
Game Two: Gainbridge Fieldhouse – 7:30 p.m. ET on September 16 (ESPN)
Game Three: Gateway Center Arena – TBD on September 18 (TBD)*
*If necessary
Matchups We Can’t Wait to Watch:
Michael: Jordin Canada vs. Kelsey Mitchell
“Our transition game is so important, and Jordin being in the lineup makes a big difference.”
Having Jordin Canada healthy has been key for the Atlanta Dream this year, just ask head coach Karl Smesko. She’s able to push the tempo, get ahead in transition,make jaw-dropping plays that catch her defender flat-footed, or set her teammates up for an open shot.
Canada is one of the most explosive players in the league with the ball in her hands. If there’s a challenger, it’s Kelsey Mitchell.
Defensively, it’s unlikely that the two draw each other in set plays, but we’ll see them go against each other in transition situations. The matchup to watch here is which player between the two is able to push the tempo off of defensive stops to try to secure an easy basket.
“I worry about our pace. We want the ball down the court, and we want to be in action when there are 18 to 20 seconds in the shot clock,” Smesko said. “We want as many opportunities as we can get to have the defense make a mistake. The easiest time for them to make a mistake is in transition.”
Mitchell has had to shoulder more of the scoring load for the Fever with the injuries they’ve accumulated, where Canada is able to be the facilitator for the Dream’s Above the Line offensive system.
Both players will play a key role, and it helps that fast-paced action makes for an exciting watch for fans, too.
Matt: Aliyah Boston vs. Atlanta’s Frontcourt
Boston is a beast in the paint; and no one is questioning that. But Atlanta’s frontcourt defense, anchored by Brittney Griner, Naz Hillmon, and Brionna Jones, gave up the second-fewest points per game (PPG) to centers this season. Boston scored only 13.5 PPG against the Dream this past season, down slightly from her season average. Boston earned some playoff experience last season, but Griner and Jones have a combined 85 games of playoff experience. When the games grind slower and each possession exponentially matters, can Boston win her matchup and help the Fever?
X-Factors:
Michael: Atlanta’s three-point shooting
Yes, the three-point shot is exciting. And yes, Atlanta takes a ton of them. But the offensive system that Smesko has in place is more than just three pointers. It’s about getting the best shot, with an emphasis on the three and the layup.
But with the matchup against the Fever, the question is how will they guard against an elite three-point shooting team like Atlanta, who has players who are able to space the floor at every position?
It starts with Rhyne Howard, who became the first player in WNBA history to make at least nine three-pointers in a game twice this season. Still, the Dream rank third in the league in percentage of total points from three (34%), while the Fever rank eighth at 29.3%.
The Fever rank middle of the pack for opposing team’s three-point percentage at 32.9%, which is slightly down from Atlanta’s offensive three-point mark of 33.7%.
When the Dream are locked in behind the arc, it’s hard to beat them. There have been 21 instances this year where the Dream have made at least 10 three-pointers. In those games, Atlanta is 16-5.
Two of those losses were against the Indiana Fever.
Matt: The Fever’s ability to force TOVs
With Clark out, many are expecting a swift series win for the Dream. But give the Fever some credit on the defensive end. After years of toiling in poor defensive play, they’ve improved, even if moderately. Against the Dream, though, those fortunes have turned advantageously, having the second-best defensive rating (DTG) and net rating of all teams when playing the Dream. Even if you aren’t a believer in DRTG, that’s not small potatoes, but what it means come playoffs will be a different story.
To be sure, the Fever’s defensive advantages won’t be vast, as the Dream are one of the league’s best on that end of the floor. But the Fever do possess one advantage—forcing turnovers. Indiana finished third overall in opponents’ turnovers per game, compared to the Dream’s 12th-place finish.
The Fever played the Dream tough defensively all four games, even if the outcomes don’t reflect it. This could be their way to level the playing field and make for a more compelling series.
One Burning Question:
Michael: Can Atlanta avoid a letdown quarter?
The Dream have been susceptible to letdown quarters, keeping games closer than they should be. It’s happened frequently this year, and most notably in the six-point quarters against the Aces and Lynx in losses.
But the letdown can come in many ways for them, especially when they get away from what makes them, them.
“Details matter and the little things matter,” Te-Hina Paopao said. “We have to fix those things now so that they don’t hurt us later.”
The later is now for the Dream, and while they know their identity and how to operate within the system offensively and defensively, there are still let-ups that seem to happen for Atlanta.
Offensively, you can sense that things are going wrong when an iso situation occurs where Rhyne Howard or Allisha Gray will force up a bad shot instead of working within the system to get into action.
“By watching the game, you can tell what a good or a bad shot is,” Smesko said.
The offense can translate to the defense when mismatches occur in transition, allowing for the opposition to get position for a deep seal in the paint against a smaller defender.
Smesko has emphasized communication over and over again this season, wanting his players to communicate loudly on defense. And while it was players like Naz Hillmon and Brionna Jones who excelled at it earlier this season, we’re hearing the players actively communicate defensively—inside a small but very loud Gateway Center Arena—during the games.
Like Paopao said, details matter.
Matt: Who will step up now that Clark is out?
Luckily, this isn’t a new problem for the Fever but it is a problem. Per Statmuse, the team went 16-15 without Clark and 8-5 with her. You obviously never want to be without your star player, but a winning record, even by a game, shows this team weathered the injury bug that plagued them all season. Now we’ll see if they can do it in the playoffs.
Can Kelsey Mitchell, the likely down-ballot MVP vote-getter, Boston, and Lexie Hull pick up the slack and win this series?
Bold Predictions:
Michael: Bri Jones averages 15/15 for the series
Aliyah Boston ranked fourth in the WNBA this year in double-doubles with 17, but Brionna Jones wasn’t far behind with her 12.
“I can’t say enough about Bri,” Smesko said. “She’s a top-10 player in this league.”
Smesko has been in that camp all year, as you would expect a head coach to be for his players. But while your mileage may vary on Jones being a top-10 player, it’s hard to argue that she isn’t one of the more dominant players in the paint, and one of the more underrated players in the league.
Jones’ ability to post 12 double-doubles on a team with an MVP candidate in Allisha Gray, a superstar in Rhyne Howard, a Sixth Player of the Year contender in Naz Hillmon, while serving as a rim-running big who can offer some spacing for guards like Jordin Canada and Te-Hina Paopao, while ceding minutes to Brittney Griner, is impressive.
My favorite matchup of the year was watching Jones and Nneka Ogwumike go at it in the paint. The two of them have the best footwork in the game down low, and Jones ability to extend possessions is a key for the Dream. She ranks second in the league with 3.1 offensive boards per game.
I’m expecting Jones, a playoff veteran, to own the boards against the Fever en route to a 15/15 average.
Michael: Atlanta sweeps the series
I asked Karl Smesko if he had a preference of playing Indiana, Golden State, or Seattle in the first round, especially when accounting for the travel.
He gave an answer that you’d expect from a coach, saying that he can only control what he can control. He’ll never admit it. The Dream won’t ever admit it. But the Fever are the team that Atlanta wanted in the first round. Not only is it a shorter flight, but it’s a team that has dealt with a number of injuries this year.
While Smesko has said repeatedly that he wants every team to be fully healthy against them and every other team in the WNBA every single night, it’s hard not to look at the two teams and see two different makeups. The Fever are missing key players that they expected to have for the playoffs when the season started, while the Dream, who battled through injuries all season, are healthy heading into the season, aside from rookie Taylor Thierry.
The Dream have the advantage when it comes to depth, defense, and scoring options when compared to the Fever.
Fully healthy? We are looking at a different story. But where they stand now, it’s hard not to see Atlanta not only advancing, but doing so in a two-game sweep.
Matt: Natasha Howard averages a double-double
Clark is out, and Mitchell can’t score every point of the series, so who will help with down-roster scoring? Why not Howard, who has three WNBA titles and 53 games of playoff experience to her name? This has to be the reason the team brought her aboard in the offseason.
Look for Howard to shine in the postseason, complementing Boston’s contributions and forming a frontcourt force that could prove challenging for Atlanta to stop.
Matt: The Fever win this series
Okay, hear me out. The offensive numbers aren’t that far apart from the Dream’s. The Fever won 11 games on the road, putting them at a .500 record for the season. That’s usually what good-to-great teams try to earn.
If the defense can perform at or slightly better than where they were against the Dream during the regular season, this team, with chemistry forged by injuries abound and without their best player, can win this series.
Stats through the 2025 regular season. Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of WNBA.com.
