It’s a challenging foe for the Fever, but they’re used to challenges. They’ve battled absences and difficult circumstances all season, but it didn’t stop them from taking down the Atlanta Dream in the first round. Atlanta and Las Vegas finished the season with an equal record at 30-14.
But that’s not the story of these Aces. They were 14-14 on August 2 after a miserable 53-point loss to the Minnesota Lynx, then closed the season by winning 16 games in a row. They will have suffered just a single loss — a blown lead in Game 2 against Seattle — in 50 days when Game 1 of the second round comes.
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The Fever will have to beat them three times in five tries to reach the WNBA Finals. In the regular season, Indiana went 2-1 in their battles with Las Vegas. But both sides will feel like that mark isn’t predictive.
“They haven’t seen the real Aces yet. They caught us when we were a bit in turmoil. Not only that, they whooped us [in] one of those stretches,” Aces coach Becky Hammon said when asked what excites her about a matchup with the Fever. “We’ll … hone in where we can and take care of business. I know everybody’s super excited about tonight, which I am too, but I gotta get our hard hats on and get these guys prepped and ready for what’s coming next.”
The Fever may not believe that Vegas has seen the real version of their team, either. “Real” may not be the perfect word since Indy hasn’t had one of its star players since mid-July in Caitlin Clark, but the last time the two teams met was on July 24. Three of the nine Fever players who suited up that night have since suffered season-ending injuries. Odyssey Sims, Shey Peddy and Aerial Powers are new to the mix, and the team has tweaked its style with new talent in the door.
So, forget the past. What are these teams right now?
Since August 3 — the time of the Aces explosion — Las Vegas finished the regular season first in offensive rating by four points per 100 possessions and second in defensive rating. The Fever were fourth and eighth in that span, respectively. In the first round, the two teams held a similar ranking on the offensive side, but the Fever showed more defensive pop than the Aces. Defense will be key in a series where both teams have been clicking offensively.
Both teams are led by star players. Vegas has A’ja Wilson, Chelsea Gray and Jakie Young, a dominant trio that has been additive for years. They’ve won a ton of big games and playoff series together. The Indiana Fever, meanwhile, have Aliyah Boston and Kelsey Mitchell, and both are having the best seasons of their career so far. Both Indiana stars won their first-ever playoff series this week.
“Yeah, our biggest [thing] is just going to be containing the basketball without fouling,” Wilson said Thursday night when asked about the Fever. “I mean, Kelsey Mitchell is having one heck of a year, and it’s going to be hard to slow her down. But it’s not going to be just Jackie; it’s going to have to take all of us on the defensive end.
“And that’s what we’re going to have to really lock in on, is just playing defense the right way, and being on time and having layers to it. And I think that’s what’s going to be my initial thought, and I’m sure Becky would probably say the same. When it all boils down to it, we really can’t even focus on their X’s and O’s because we’re going to know those. They’re going to know ours. It’s just going to come down to us playing our way and the right way.”
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Beyond that, this series will be about two teams trying to impose their style. The sixth-seeded Indiana Fever want a faster game — their three battles with Atlanta had the highest pace of any first-round set. Indy is more comfortable in an up-tempo game. They beat the Dream by turning defense into offense. And they want to space the floor all the while. Mitchell and Boston make it possible, but quick-thinking role players who understand where to be on the floor are pivotal.
The second-half Aces aren’t slow or afraid of speed — they rank eighth in possessions per 40 minutes since August 3 — but they are still more deliberate than Indiana. Their depth has become a strength, too, since their midseason lineup shift: They’ve lost just two games total since moving six-time All-Star Jewell Loyd to the second unit. It’s added a vital balance to their team, and the Aces come at opponents for the full 40 minutes with Loyd’s energy off the bench.
Indiana is a resilient bunch and is not afraid of the challenge. But they’ll need to play at a higher level than they did in the first round to win. Rim pressure and possession control will be key against an Aces group that protects the rim at an elite level and rarely turns the ball over.
They won’t be able to slow down Wilson. That’s not even an indictment on the Fever’s defense — it’s just that nobody can really slow the MVP-hopeful down. Giving Young, Gray and Loyd hell is a must, and others can’t be too explosive. Indiana did well limiting Dream role players in the first round, but that’s harder against a player with Wilson’s gravity and postseason experience.
As the rubber meets the road, it’s all about what Wilson said. Both teams will review the tape and know their opponent well. Instead, the margins will come from each team needing to play to its own strengths to win.
For the Indiana Fever, that’s being a high-scoring bunch with passable defense. Their stars are critical to that framework, and they have shown that they’re ready for this stage. But they won’t be the favorites as the lower-seeded team, going against an opponent that has only lost once in seven weeks. It’s the toughest challenge yet for a Fever bunch that has faced many.
